CFB Power Rankings

Independent power rankings, predictions, win probabilities, and game results.

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#65

Texas State

Pac-12 · Conf Rank #3 ·
Net Rating +3.7
Strength of Schedule #72
Strength of Record #87
Passing & Rushing Breakdown
Passing
Att 148
Comp % 67.6%#30
Yards 1,366
YPA 9.2
ADOT 9.0
INT 5
Success 55.8%#12
PPA 0.49#20
Color = success rate vs FBS average
Deep Left
50.0%
2 / 4 completionssmall sample
Yards 106
YPC 53.0
Success 50.0%#24
PPA 1.45#16
Deep Middle
16.7%
1 / 6 completionssmall sample
Yards 29
YPC 29.0
Success 16.7%#114
PPA -0.67#118
Deep Right
44.4%
4 / 9 completionssmall sample
Yards 111
YPC 27.8
Success 44.4%#45
PPA 0.50#71
Short Left
82.6%
38 / 46 completions
Yards 330
YPC 8.7
Success 56.5%#27
PPA 0.65#8
Short Middle
60.0%
15 / 25 completions
Yards 270
YPC 18.0
Success 60.0%#24
PPA 0.95#8
Short Right
76.0%
38 / 50 completions
Yards 467
YPC 12.3
Success 64.0%#4
PPA 0.55#11
No recorded location 2 / 7 completions
Yards 53
YPA 7.6
Comp % 28.6%
Success 28.6%
PPA -2.71

140 of 148 pass attempts have a recorded zone; the rest are in the row above.

What do these stats mean?
Success rate
Share of plays that gained enough to keep the offense on schedule (roughly half the needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd/4th).
PPA
Predicted points added per play: how much each play changed the offense's expected points.
ADOT
Average depth of target: how far downfield the average throw travels in the air.
YAC
Yards gained after the catch.
Explosiveness
How big the successful plays are, on average.
Stuff rate
Share of carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line rather than the runner.
Second level / open field
Yards gained beyond the line: the second level is roughly 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, open field is farther. The bar under each rushing tile shows each source as a share of the three combined.
#12 (rank)
Season rank among FBS teams with meaningful volume in that spot. #1 is best; on Defense Allowed, #1 allowed the least. Ranks are hidden in single-game views.
Small sample
Fewer than 10 plays in a season (3 in a single game). These tiles are dimmed and not colored.
Defense Allowed
Same stats, but for what opponents did against this team. Lower is better there.

Schedule & Results

Week Opponent Result / Prediction vs Prediction
Wk 1
@ Texas L 7–59
-25.2
Wk 2
vs UTSA L 26–31
-1.6
Wk 3
vs North Texas W 49–35
+16.2
Wk 4
vs Incarnate Word W 63–10
+23.3
Wk 5
@ San Diego State L 29–31
-9.2
Wk 6
Bye — —
Wk 7 Oct 16
vs Colorado State Proj: -13.0 84% —
Wk 8 Oct 24
vs Utah State Proj: -12.5 84% —
Wk 9 Nov 1
@ Boise State Proj: +10.1 26% —
Wk 10 Nov 8
@ Oregon State Proj: +9.3 26% —
Wk 11 Nov 14
vs Fresno State Proj: -5.7 67% —
Wk 12 Nov 21
vs Washington State Proj: -11.3 74% —