CFB Power Rankings

Independent power rankings, predictions, win probabilities, and game results.

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#121

San Diego State

Pac-12 · Conf Rank #8 ·
Net Rating -10.2
Strength of Schedule #71
Strength of Record #118
Passing & Rushing Breakdown
Passing
Att 159
Comp % 54.1%#127
Yards 859
YPA 5.4
ADOT 9.4
INT 6
Success 32.7%#135
PPA -0.08#136
Color = success rate vs FBS average
Deep Left
16.7%
2 / 12 completions
Yards 74
YPC 37.0
Success 16.7%#110
PPA -0.33#111
Deep Middle
40.0%
2 / 5 completionssmall sample
Yards 72
YPC 36.0
Success 40.0%#75
PPA 0.95#68
Deep Right
33.3%
2 / 6 completionssmall sample
Yards 65
YPC 32.5
Success 33.3%#75
PPA 1.04#32
Short Left
69.5%
41 / 59 completions
Yards 342
YPC 8.3
Success 40.7%#110
PPA 0.17#97
Short Middle
40.9%
9 / 22 completions
Yards 133
YPC 14.8
Success 31.8%#132
PPA 0.30#95
Short Right
61.2%
30 / 49 completions
Yards 173
YPC 5.8
Success 30.6%#132
PPA -0.08#132
No recorded location 0 / 6 completions
Yards 0
YPA 0.0
Comp % 0.0%
Success 0.0%
PPA -5.42

153 of 159 pass attempts have a recorded zone; the rest are in the row above.

What do these stats mean?
Success rate
Share of plays that gained enough to keep the offense on schedule (roughly half the needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd/4th).
PPA
Predicted points added per play: how much each play changed the offense's expected points.
ADOT
Average depth of target: how far downfield the average throw travels in the air.
YAC
Yards gained after the catch.
Explosiveness
How big the successful plays are, on average.
Stuff rate
Share of carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line rather than the runner.
Second level / open field
Yards gained beyond the line: the second level is roughly 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, open field is farther. The bar under each rushing tile shows each source as a share of the three combined.
#12 (rank)
Season rank among FBS teams with meaningful volume in that spot. #1 is best; on Defense Allowed, #1 allowed the least. Ranks are hidden in single-game views.
Small sample
Fewer than 10 plays in a season (3 in a single game). These tiles are dimmed and not colored.
Defense Allowed
Same stats, but for what opponents did against this team. Lower is better there.

Schedule & Results

Week Opponent Result / Prediction vs Prediction
Wk 1
vs Portland State W 53–20
-10.0
Wk 2
@ UCLA L 10–28
-7.0
Wk 3
vs James Madison L 13–26
-2.5
Wk 4
@ Toledo L 16–41
-9.5
Wk 5
vs Texas State W 31–29
+9.2
Wk 6
@ Oregon State L 14–66
-28.9
Wk 7 Oct 18
vs Fresno State Proj: +8.5 29% —
Wk 8 Oct 24
@ Colorado State Proj: +7.5 26% —
Wk 9 Oct 31
vs Washington State Proj: +2.8 47% —
Wk 10
Bye — —
Wk 11 Nov 15
vs Utah State Proj: +1.7 47% —
Wk 12 Nov 22
@ Boise State Proj: +24.2 6% —