CFB Power Rankings

Independent power rankings, predictions, win probabilities, and game results.

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#72

Michigan State

Big Ten · Conf Rank #14 ·
Net Rating +2.1
Strength of Schedule #4
Strength of Record #95
Passing & Rushing Breakdown
Passing
Att 167
Comp % 66.5%#44
Yards 1,140
YPA 6.8
ADOT 7.3
INT 4
Success 49.7%#33
PPA 0.19#94
Color = success rate vs FBS average
Deep Left
50.0%
2 / 4 completionssmall sample
Yards 77
YPC 38.5
Success 50.0%#24
PPA 1.28#21
Deep Middle
—
0 / 0 completions
Yards —
YPC —
Success 0.0%
PPA 0.00
Deep Right
0.0%
0 / 5 completionssmall sample
Yards 0
YPC —
Success 0.0%#130
PPA -1.26#136
Short Left
72.2%
39 / 54 completions
Yards 332
YPC 8.5
Success 51.9%#46
PPA 0.21#90
Short Middle
62.1%
18 / 29 completions
Yards 198
YPC 11.0
Success 37.9%#119
PPA -0.15#136
Short Right
72.1%
49 / 68 completions
Yards 453
YPC 9.2
Success 57.4%#14
PPA 0.51#19
No recorded location 3 / 7 completions
Yards 80
YPA 11.4
Comp % 42.9%
Success 42.9%
PPA -1.18

160 of 167 pass attempts have a recorded zone; the rest are in the row above.

What do these stats mean?
Success rate
Share of plays that gained enough to keep the offense on schedule (roughly half the needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd/4th).
PPA
Predicted points added per play: how much each play changed the offense's expected points.
ADOT
Average depth of target: how far downfield the average throw travels in the air.
YAC
Yards gained after the catch.
Explosiveness
How big the successful plays are, on average.
Stuff rate
Share of carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line rather than the runner.
Second level / open field
Yards gained beyond the line: the second level is roughly 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, open field is farther. The bar under each rushing tile shows each source as a share of the three combined.
#12 (rank)
Season rank among FBS teams with meaningful volume in that spot. #1 is best; on Defense Allowed, #1 allowed the least. Ranks are hidden in single-game views.
Small sample
Fewer than 10 plays in a season (3 in a single game). These tiles are dimmed and not colored.
Defense Allowed
Same stats, but for what opponents did against this team. Lower is better there.

Schedule & Results

Week Opponent Result / Prediction vs Prediction
Wk 1
vs Toledo W 30–20
+8.2
Wk 2
vs Eastern Michigan W 35–7
+14.9
Wk 3
@ Notre Dame L 10–27
+12.7
Wk 4
vs Nebraska L 13–31
-8.9
Wk 5
@ Wisconsin L 3–31
-14.2
Wk 6
vs Illinois L 37–38
-0.4
Wk 7 Oct 17
vs Northwestern Proj: +7.9 29% —
Wk 8 Oct 24
@ UCLA Proj: +16.4 12% —
Wk 9
Bye — —
Wk 10 Nov 7
@ Michigan Proj: +18.9 7% —
Wk 11 Nov 14
vs Washington Proj: +5.1 29% —
Wk 12 Nov 21
vs Oregon Proj: +19.6 12% —
Wk 13 Nov 28
@ Rutgers Proj: -0.3 50% —