CFB Power Rankings

Independent power rankings, predictions, win probabilities, and game results.

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#75

Fresno State

Pac-12 · Conf Rank #4 ·
Net Rating +1.4
Strength of Schedule #77
Strength of Record #52
Passing & Rushing Breakdown
Passing
Att 176
Comp % 64.8%#59
Yards 1,346
YPA 7.7
ADOT 7.6
INT 1
Success 48.0%#48
PPA 0.43#31
Color = success rate vs FBS average
Deep Left
33.3%
2 / 6 completionssmall sample
Yards 56
YPC 28.0
Success 33.3%#67
PPA 0.32#73
Deep Middle
0.0%
0 / 2 completionssmall sample
Yards 0
YPC —
Success 0.0%
PPA -0.36
Deep Right
20.0%
2 / 10 completions
Yards 74
YPC 37.0
Success 20.0%#113
PPA -0.21#123
Short Left
73.1%
38 / 52 completions
Yards 399
YPC 10.5
Success 55.8%#29
PPA 0.61#13
Short Middle
72.0%
18 / 25 completions
Yards 179
YPC 9.9
Success 56.0%#50
PPA 0.61#51
Short Right
66.2%
49 / 74 completions
Yards 513
YPC 10.5
Success 44.6%#68
PPA 0.22#77
No recorded location 5 / 6 completions
Yards 125
YPA 20.8
Comp % 83.3%
Success 66.7%
PPA 2.03

169 of 176 pass attempts have a recorded zone; the rest are in the row above.

What do these stats mean?
Success rate
Share of plays that gained enough to keep the offense on schedule (roughly half the needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd/4th).
PPA
Predicted points added per play: how much each play changed the offense's expected points.
ADOT
Average depth of target: how far downfield the average throw travels in the air.
YAC
Yards gained after the catch.
Explosiveness
How big the successful plays are, on average.
Stuff rate
Share of carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line rather than the runner.
Second level / open field
Yards gained beyond the line: the second level is roughly 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, open field is farther. The bar under each rushing tile shows each source as a share of the three combined.
#12 (rank)
Season rank among FBS teams with meaningful volume in that spot. #1 is best; on Defense Allowed, #1 allowed the least. Ranks are hidden in single-game views.
Small sample
Fewer than 10 plays in a season (3 in a single game). These tiles are dimmed and not colored.
Defense Allowed
Same stats, but for what opponents did against this team. Lower is better there.

Schedule & Results

Week Opponent Result / Prediction vs Prediction
Wk 1
@ USC L 0–39
-9.3
Wk 2
vs Sacramento State W 49–3
+34.8
Wk 3
@ San José State W 26–10
+14.8
Wk 4
vs Rice W 38–24
+1.1
Wk 5
@ Washington State W 26–6
+18.5
Wk 6
vs Boise State L 31–38
-1.2
Wk 7 Oct 18
@ San Diego State Proj: -8.5 71% —
Wk 8
Bye — —
Wk 9 Oct 31
vs Oregon State Proj: +5.4 29% —
Wk 10 Nov 8
@ Utah State Proj: -3.6 53% —
Wk 11 Nov 14
@ Texas State Proj: +5.7 33% —
Wk 12 Nov 22
vs Colorado State Proj: -10.6 74% —