CFB Power Rankings

Independent power rankings, predictions, win probabilities, and game results.

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#53

Duke

ACC · Conf Rank #9 ·
Net Rating +7.3
Strength of Schedule #64
Strength of Record #41
Passing & Rushing Breakdown
Passing
Att 150
Comp % 61.3%#88
Yards 1,165
YPA 7.8
ADOT 8.4
INT 1
Success 46.6%#62
PPA 0.40#36
Color = success rate vs FBS average
Deep Left
50.0%
8 / 16 completions
Yards 221
YPC 27.6
Success 50.0%#24
PPA 0.77#45
Deep Middle
100.0%
1 / 1 completionssmall sample
Yards 29
YPC 29.0
Success 100.0%
PPA 2.79
Deep Right
37.5%
3 / 8 completionssmall sample
Yards 85
YPC 28.3
Success 37.5%#66
PPA 0.47#74
Short Left
70.5%
31 / 44 completions
Yards 348
YPC 11.2
Success 56.8%#25
PPA 0.64#10
Short Middle
71.1%
27 / 38 completions
Yards 291
YPC 10.8
Success 44.7%#94
PPA 0.26#102
Short Right
55.0%
22 / 40 completions
Yards 191
YPC 8.7
Success 37.5%#113
PPA 0.04#118
No recorded location 0 / 1 completions
Yards 0
YPA 0.0
Comp % 0.0%
Success 0.0%
PPA 0.00

147 of 150 pass attempts have a recorded zone; the rest are in the row above.

What do these stats mean?
Success rate
Share of plays that gained enough to keep the offense on schedule (roughly half the needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd/4th).
PPA
Predicted points added per play: how much each play changed the offense's expected points.
ADOT
Average depth of target: how far downfield the average throw travels in the air.
YAC
Yards gained after the catch.
Explosiveness
How big the successful plays are, on average.
Stuff rate
Share of carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line rather than the runner.
Second level / open field
Yards gained beyond the line: the second level is roughly 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, open field is farther. The bar under each rushing tile shows each source as a share of the three combined.
#12 (rank)
Season rank among FBS teams with meaningful volume in that spot. #1 is best; on Defense Allowed, #1 allowed the least. Ranks are hidden in single-game views.
Small sample
Fewer than 10 plays in a season (3 in a single game). These tiles are dimmed and not colored.
Defense Allowed
Same stats, but for what opponents did against this team. Lower is better there.

Schedule & Results

Week Opponent Result / Prediction vs Prediction
Wk 1
vs Tulane W 17–3
+8.9
Wk 2
@ Illinois W 31–27
+9.2
Wk 3
vs Stanford W 35–7
+13.5
Wk 4
vs William & Mary W 62–7
+6.6
Wk 5
Bye — —
Wk 6
@ Georgia Tech L 25–28
-5.6
Wk 7 Oct 17
vs North Carolina Proj: -4.3 62% —
Wk 8 Oct 23
@ Virginia Proj: +5.9 33% —
Wk 9 Oct 31
vs Boston College Proj: -13.8 84% —
Wk 10 Nov 7
@ NC State Proj: +1.7 50% —
Wk 11 Nov 14
@ Miami Proj: +25.8 6% —
Wk 12 Nov 21
vs Clemson Proj: -4.6 62% —
Wk 13 Nov 28
@ Wake Forest Proj: +8.8 26% —