CFB Power Rankings

Independent power rankings, predictions, win probabilities, and game results.

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#110

Arkansas State

Sun Belt · Conf Rank #9 ·
Net Rating -6.1
Strength of Schedule #108
Strength of Record #127
Passing & Rushing Breakdown
Passing
Att 176
Comp % 68.8%#22
Yards 1,476
YPA 8.4
ADOT 8.9
INT 6
Success 53.4%#20
PPA 0.27#68
Color = success rate vs FBS average
Deep Left
33.3%
5 / 15 completions
Yards 171
YPC 34.2
Success 33.3%#67
PPA 0.17#85
Deep Middle
33.3%
1 / 3 completionssmall sample
Yards 46
YPC 46.0
Success 33.3%#89
PPA 0.52#86
Deep Right
44.4%
4 / 9 completionssmall sample
Yards 110
YPC 27.5
Success 44.4%#45
PPA 0.65#53
Short Left
81.1%
43 / 53 completions
Yards 400
YPC 9.3
Success 66.0%#5
PPA 0.46#32
Short Middle
70.8%
17 / 24 completions
Yards 200
YPC 11.8
Success 62.5%#16
PPA 0.91#11
Short Right
76.2%
48 / 63 completions
Yards 510
YPC 10.6
Success 49.2%#49
PPA 0.21#85
No recorded location 3 / 9 completions
Yards 39
YPA 4.3
Comp % 33.3%
Success 33.3%
PPA -2.51

167 of 176 pass attempts have a recorded zone; the rest are in the row above.

What do these stats mean?
Success rate
Share of plays that gained enough to keep the offense on schedule (roughly half the needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd/4th).
PPA
Predicted points added per play: how much each play changed the offense's expected points.
ADOT
Average depth of target: how far downfield the average throw travels in the air.
YAC
Yards gained after the catch.
Explosiveness
How big the successful plays are, on average.
Stuff rate
Share of carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line rather than the runner.
Second level / open field
Yards gained beyond the line: the second level is roughly 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, open field is farther. The bar under each rushing tile shows each source as a share of the three combined.
#12 (rank)
Season rank among FBS teams with meaningful volume in that spot. #1 is best; on Defense Allowed, #1 allowed the least. Ranks are hidden in single-game views.
Small sample
Fewer than 10 plays in a season (3 in a single game). These tiles are dimmed and not colored.
Defense Allowed
Same stats, but for what opponents did against this team. Lower is better there.

Schedule & Results

Week Opponent Result / Prediction vs Prediction
Wk 1
@ Memphis L 24–42
-5.7
Wk 2
vs West Georgia W 52–7
+8.9
Wk 3
@ TCU L 7–31
-4.6
Wk 4
vs Kennesaw State W 17–14
+0.9
Wk 5
@ Louisiana L 20–23
+8.1
Wk 6
vs South Alabama L 49–56
-9.6
Wk 7 Oct 17
@ Southern Miss Proj: +0.9 50% —
Wk 8 Oct 24
vs Georgia State Proj: +4.6 33% —
Wk 9
Bye — —
Wk 10 Nov 7
vs UL Monroe Proj: -19.2 94% —
Wk 11 Nov 14
@ Coastal Carolina Proj: +1.6 50% —
Wk 12 Nov 21
@ Louisiana Tech Proj: +7.3 33% —
Wk 13 Nov 28
vs Troy Proj: +2.1 47% —