CFB Power Rankings

Independent power rankings, predictions, win probabilities, and game results.

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#35

Toledo

Mid-American · Conf Rank #1 ·
Net Rating +7.1
Strength of Schedule #121
Strength of Record #66
Efficient OffenseElite Disruptive DefenseOverachieving Above-Average Roster
Passing & Rushing Breakdown
Passing
Att 396
Comp % 63.9%#48
Yards 3,099
YPA 7.8
ADOT 7.6
INT 10
Success 48.0%#30
PPA 0.31#44
Color = success rate vs FBS average
Deep Left
16.7%
1 / 6 completionssmall sample
Yards 63
YPC 63.0
Success 16.7%#101
PPA 0.52#55
Deep Middle
50.0%
4 / 8 completionssmall sample
Yards 110
YPC 27.5
Success 50.0%#33
PPA 0.80#53
Deep Right
20.0%
1 / 5 completionssmall sample
Yards 32
YPC 32.0
Success 20.0%#101
PPA -0.24#109
Short Left
71.7%
33 / 46 completions
Yards 278
YPC 8.4
Success 39.1%#102
PPA 0.18#85
Short Middle
61.5%
32 / 52 completions
Yards 455
YPC 14.2
Success 48.1%#80
PPA 0.55#60
Short Right
70.5%
43 / 61 completions
Yards 343
YPC 8.0
Success 49.2%#23
PPA 0.06#98
No recorded location 139 / 216 completions
Yards 1,818
YPA 8.4
Comp % 64.4%
Success 50.9%
PPA 0.34

178 of 396 pass attempts have a recorded zone; the rest are in the row above.

What do these stats mean?
Success rate
Share of plays that gained enough to keep the offense on schedule (roughly half the needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd/4th).
PPA
Predicted points added per play: how much each play changed the offense's expected points.
ADOT
Average depth of target: how far downfield the average throw travels in the air.
YAC
Yards gained after the catch.
Explosiveness
How big the successful plays are, on average.
Stuff rate
Share of carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line rather than the runner.
Second level / open field
Yards gained beyond the line: the second level is roughly 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, open field is farther. The bar under each rushing tile shows each source as a share of the three combined.
#12 (rank)
Season rank among FBS teams with meaningful volume in that spot. #1 is best; on Defense Allowed, #1 allowed the least. Ranks are hidden in single-game views.
Small sample
Fewer than 10 plays in a season (3 in a single game). These tiles are dimmed and not colored.
Defense Allowed
Same stats, but for what opponents did against this team. Lower is better there.

Schedule & Results

Week Opponent Result / Prediction vs Prediction
Wk 1
@ Kentucky L 16–24
+1.1
Wk 2
vs Western Kentucky W 45–21
+24.0
Wk 3
vs Morgan State W 60–0
+22.5
Wk 4
@ Western Michigan L 13–14
-11.5
Wk 5
vs Akron W 45–3
+19.7
Wk 6
Bye — —
Wk 7
@ Bowling Green L 23–28
-12.9
Wk 8
vs Kent State W 45–10
+4.4
Wk 9
@ Washington State L 7–28
-29.9
Wk 10
Bye — —
Wk 11
vs Northern Illinois W 42–3
+20.0
Wk 12
@ Miami (OH) W 24–3
+14.2
Wk 13
vs Ball State W 38–9
-2.1
Wk 14
@ Central Michigan W 21–3
+6.2
Bush'S Boca Raton Bowl
@ Louisville L 22–27
+5.6