CFB Power Rankings

Independent power rankings, predictions, win probabilities, and game results.

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#67

Texas State

Sun Belt · Conf Rank #3 ·
Net Rating -0.4
Strength of Schedule #113
Strength of Record #88
Uptempo High-Powered Ground AttackVulnerable DefenseAbove-Average Roster
Passing & Rushing Breakdown
Passing
Att 376
Comp % 69.4%#7
Yards 3,443
YPA 9.2
ADOT 7.6
INT 9
Success 49.2%#17
PPA 0.42#17
Color = success rate vs FBS average
Deep Left
71.4%
5 / 7 completionssmall sample
Yards 188
YPC 37.6
Success 71.4%#3
PPA 1.79#4
Deep Middle
33.3%
1 / 3 completionssmall sample
Yards 31
YPC 31.0
Success 33.3%#71
PPA 0.20#89
Deep Right
27.3%
3 / 11 completions
Yards 109
YPC 36.3
Success 27.3%#83
PPA 0.33#65
Short Left
82.8%
53 / 64 completions
Yards 489
YPC 9.2
Success 53.1%#22
PPA 0.44#22
Short Middle
76.0%
19 / 25 completions
Yards 265
YPC 13.9
Success 60.0%#29
PPA 1.00#11
Short Right
76.9%
40 / 52 completions
Yards 349
YPC 8.7
Success 50.0%#17
PPA 0.24#45
No recorded location 140 / 212 completions
Yards 2,012
YPA 9.5
Comp % 66.0%
Success 47.2%
PPA 0.35

162 of 376 pass attempts have a recorded zone; the rest are in the row above.

What do these stats mean?
Success rate
Share of plays that gained enough to keep the offense on schedule (roughly half the needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd/4th).
PPA
Predicted points added per play: how much each play changed the offense's expected points.
ADOT
Average depth of target: how far downfield the average throw travels in the air.
YAC
Yards gained after the catch.
Explosiveness
How big the successful plays are, on average.
Stuff rate
Share of carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line rather than the runner.
Second level / open field
Yards gained beyond the line: the second level is roughly 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, open field is farther. The bar under each rushing tile shows each source as a share of the three combined.
#12 (rank)
Season rank among FBS teams with meaningful volume in that spot. #1 is best; on Defense Allowed, #1 allowed the least. Ranks are hidden in single-game views.
Small sample
Fewer than 10 plays in a season (3 in a single game). These tiles are dimmed and not colored.
Defense Allowed
Same stats, but for what opponents did against this team. Lower is better there.

Schedule & Results

Week Opponent Result / Prediction vs Prediction
Wk 1
vs Eastern Michigan W 52–27
+8.7
Wk 2
@ UTSA W 43–36
+5.5
Wk 3
@ Arizona State L 15–34
-15.4
Wk 4
vs Nicholls W 35–3
-9.6
Wk 5
Bye — —
Wk 6
@ Arkansas State L 30–31
-18.0
Wk 7
vs Troy L 41–48
-17.5
Wk 8
@ Marshall L 37–40
-3.9
Wk 9
Bye — —
Wk 10
vs James Madison L 20–52
-26.4
Wk 11
@ Louisiana L 39–42
-8.0
Wk 12
@ Southern Miss W 41–14
+27.5
Wk 13
vs UL Monroe W 31–14
-6.1
Wk 14
vs South Alabama W 49–26
+12.8
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
vs Rice W 41–10
+14.1