CFB Power Rankings

Independent power rankings, predictions, win probabilities, and game results.

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#87

North Carolina

ACC · Conf Rank #14 ·
Net Rating -5.2
Strength of Schedule #78
Strength of Record #116
Controlled Pace Balanced SpreadVulnerable DefenseUnderachieving High-Level Roster
Passing & Rushing Breakdown
Passing
Att 351
Comp % 64.1%#44
Yards 2,220
YPA 6.3
ADOT 8.7
INT 6
Success 42.2%#91
PPA 0.12#111
Color = success rate vs FBS average
Deep Left
11.1%
1 / 9 completionssmall sample
Yards 23
YPC 23.0
Success 11.1%#113
PPA -0.71#120
Deep Middle
33.3%
1 / 3 completionssmall sample
Yards 20
YPC 20.0
Success 33.3%#71
PPA 0.22#87
Deep Right
10.0%
1 / 10 completions
Yards 20
YPC 20.0
Success 10.0%#123
PPA -0.68#123
Short Left
76.1%
51 / 67 completions
Yards 415
YPC 8.1
Success 52.2%#26
PPA 0.41#25
Short Middle
75.9%
22 / 29 completions
Yards 241
YPC 10.9
Success 58.6%#35
PPA 0.54#61
Short Right
70.9%
39 / 55 completions
Yards 338
YPC 8.7
Success 41.8%#71
PPA 0.21#51
No recorded location 110 / 178 completions
Yards 1,163
YPA 6.5
Comp % 61.8%
Success 39.3%
PPA 0.00

173 of 351 pass attempts have a recorded zone; the rest are in the row above.

What do these stats mean?
Success rate
Share of plays that gained enough to keep the offense on schedule (roughly half the needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd/4th).
PPA
Predicted points added per play: how much each play changed the offense's expected points.
ADOT
Average depth of target: how far downfield the average throw travels in the air.
YAC
Yards gained after the catch.
Explosiveness
How big the successful plays are, on average.
Stuff rate
Share of carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line rather than the runner.
Second level / open field
Yards gained beyond the line: the second level is roughly 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, open field is farther. The bar under each rushing tile shows each source as a share of the three combined.
#12 (rank)
Season rank among FBS teams with meaningful volume in that spot. #1 is best; on Defense Allowed, #1 allowed the least. Ranks are hidden in single-game views.
Small sample
Fewer than 10 plays in a season (3 in a single game). These tiles are dimmed and not colored.
Defense Allowed
Same stats, but for what opponents did against this team. Lower is better there.

Schedule & Results

Week Opponent Result / Prediction vs Prediction
Wk 1
vs TCU L 14–48
-32.1
Wk 2
@ Charlotte W 20–3
+9.5
Wk 3
vs Richmond W 41–6
+1.7
Wk 4
@ UCF L 9–34
-16.3
Wk 5
Bye — —
Wk 6
vs Clemson L 10–38
-21.8
Wk 7
Bye — —
Wk 8
@ California L 18–21
+4.8
Wk 9
vs Virginia L 16–17
+10.5
Wk 10
@ Syracuse W 27–10
+22.0
Wk 11
vs Stanford W 20–15
-4.1
Wk 12
@ Wake Forest L 12–28
-6.3
Wk 13
vs Duke L 25–32
-0.5
Wk 14
@ NC State L 19–42
-11.3