CFB Power Rankings

Independent power rankings, predictions, win probabilities, and game results.

← Return
#102

Missouri State

Conference USA · Conf Rank #6 ·
Net Rating -8.1
Strength of Schedule #100
Strength of Record #81
Controlled Pace Volatile Big-Play Offense (Turnover-Prone)Vulnerable DefenseOverachieving Underdog Roster
Passing & Rushing Breakdown
Passing
Att 432
Comp % 64.4%#41
Yards 3,835
YPA 8.9
ADOT 8.7
INT 9
Success 47.0%#37
PPA 0.44#11
Color = success rate vs FBS average
Deep Left
45.5%
5 / 11 completions
Yards 158
YPC 31.6
Success 45.5%#25
PPA 0.94#24
Deep Middle
90.9%
10 / 11 completions
Yards 352
YPC 35.2
Success 90.9%#6
PPA 2.95#5
Deep Right
28.6%
2 / 7 completionssmall sample
Yards 52
YPC 26.0
Success 28.6%#74
PPA 0.24#74
Short Left
62.7%
42 / 67 completions
Yards 355
YPC 8.4
Success 43.3%#70
PPA 0.32#43
Short Middle
67.8%
40 / 59 completions
Yards 511
YPC 12.8
Success 54.2%#50
PPA 0.63#49
Short Right
72.5%
58 / 80 completions
Yards 523
YPC 9.0
Success 46.3%#43
PPA 0.31#29
No recorded location 121 / 197 completions
Yards 1,884
YPA 9.6
Comp % 61.4%
Success 44.7%
PPA 0.32

235 of 432 pass attempts have a recorded zone; the rest are in the row above.

What do these stats mean?
Success rate
Share of plays that gained enough to keep the offense on schedule (roughly half the needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd/4th).
PPA
Predicted points added per play: how much each play changed the offense's expected points.
ADOT
Average depth of target: how far downfield the average throw travels in the air.
YAC
Yards gained after the catch.
Explosiveness
How big the successful plays are, on average.
Stuff rate
Share of carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line rather than the runner.
Second level / open field
Yards gained beyond the line: the second level is roughly 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, open field is farther. The bar under each rushing tile shows each source as a share of the three combined.
#12 (rank)
Season rank among FBS teams with meaningful volume in that spot. #1 is best; on Defense Allowed, #1 allowed the least. Ranks are hidden in single-game views.
Small sample
Fewer than 10 plays in a season (3 in a single game). These tiles are dimmed and not colored.
Defense Allowed
Same stats, but for what opponents did against this team. Lower is better there.

Schedule & Results

Week Opponent Result / Prediction vs Prediction
Wk 1
@ USC L 13–73
-36.9
Wk 2
@ Marshall W 21–20
+9.6
Wk 3
vs SMU L 10–28
+1.1
Wk 4
vs UT Martin W 42–10
+8.5
Wk 5
vs Western Kentucky L 22–27
+1.3
Wk 6
Bye — —
Wk 7
@ Middle Tennessee W 22–20
+2.1
Wk 8
Bye — —
Wk 9
@ New Mexico State W 24–17
+6.2
Wk 10
vs Florida International W 28–21
+2.7
Wk 11
@ Liberty W 21–17
+13.7
Wk 12
vs UTEP W 38–24
+7.5
Wk 13
@ Kennesaw State L 34–41
-2.2
Wk 14
vs Louisiana Tech L 30–42
-11.9
Xbox Bowl
@ Arkansas State L 28–34
-3.2