CFB Power Rankings

Independent power rankings, predictions, win probabilities, and game results.

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#75

Fresno State

Mountain West · Conf Rank #5 ·
Net Rating -2.3
Strength of Schedule #116
Strength of Record #55
Controlled Pace Stymied Anemic OffenseDisruptive DefenseAbove-Average Roster
Passing & Rushing Breakdown
Passing
Att 376
Comp % 63.3%#52
Yards 2,434
YPA 6.5
ADOT 8.0
INT 14
Success 42.8%#82
PPA 0.13#106
Color = success rate vs FBS average
Deep Left
0.0%
0 / 5 completionssmall sample
Yards 0
YPC —
Success 0.0%#121
PPA -1.73#132
Deep Middle
25.0%
1 / 4 completionssmall sample
Yards 37
YPC 37.0
Success 25.0%#91
PPA -0.43#108
Deep Right
0.0%
0 / 7 completionssmall sample
Yards 0
YPC —
Success 14.3%#115
PPA -0.90#129
Short Left
68.6%
35 / 51 completions
Yards 237
YPC 6.8
Success 35.3%#120
PPA -0.01#123
Short Middle
65.5%
19 / 29 completions
Yards 186
YPC 9.8
Success 34.5%#128
PPA 0.17#125
Short Right
58.5%
38 / 65 completions
Yards 359
YPC 9.4
Success 32.3%#119
PPA 0.16#72
No recorded location 145 / 215 completions
Yards 1,615
YPA 7.5
Comp % 67.4%
Success 51.2%
PPA 0.23

161 of 376 pass attempts have a recorded zone; the rest are in the row above.

What do these stats mean?
Success rate
Share of plays that gained enough to keep the offense on schedule (roughly half the needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd/4th).
PPA
Predicted points added per play: how much each play changed the offense's expected points.
ADOT
Average depth of target: how far downfield the average throw travels in the air.
YAC
Yards gained after the catch.
Explosiveness
How big the successful plays are, on average.
Stuff rate
Share of carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line rather than the runner.
Second level / open field
Yards gained beyond the line: the second level is roughly 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, open field is farther. The bar under each rushing tile shows each source as a share of the three combined.
#12 (rank)
Season rank among FBS teams with meaningful volume in that spot. #1 is best; on Defense Allowed, #1 allowed the least. Ranks are hidden in single-game views.
Small sample
Fewer than 10 plays in a season (3 in a single game). These tiles are dimmed and not colored.
Defense Allowed
Same stats, but for what opponents did against this team. Lower is better there.

Schedule & Results

Week Opponent Result / Prediction vs Prediction
Wk 0
@ Kansas L 7–31
-13.5
Wk 1
vs Georgia Southern W 42–14
+27.5
Wk 2
@ Oregon State W 36–27
+8.2
Wk 3
vs Southern W 56–7
+16.2
Wk 4
@ Hawai'i W 23–21
-5.0
Wk 5
Bye — —
Wk 6
vs Nevada W 20–17
-14.3
Wk 7
@ Colorado State L 21–49
-31.6
Wk 8
Bye — —
Wk 9
vs San Diego State L 0–23
-19.8
Wk 10
@ Boise State W 30–7
+37.2
Wk 11
Bye — —
Wk 12
vs Wyoming W 24–3
+14.3
Wk 13
vs Utah State L 17–28
-18.3
Wk 14
@ San José State W 41–14
+21.3
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
vs Miami (OH) W 18–3
+15.8