CFB Power Rankings

Independent power rankings, predictions, win probabilities, and game results.

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#51

Duke

ACC · Conf Rank #10 ·
Net Rating +3.2
Strength of Schedule #52
Strength of Record #61
Efficient OffenseSound DefenseAbove-Average Roster
Passing & Rushing Breakdown
Passing
Att 505
Comp % 66.1%#26
Yards 3,979
YPA 7.9
ADOT 7.7
INT 6
Success 48.7%#22
PPA 0.40#22
Color = success rate vs FBS average
Deep Left
38.5%
5 / 13 completions
Yards 141
YPC 28.2
Success 38.5%#45
PPA 0.76#36
Deep Middle
50.0%
4 / 8 completionssmall sample
Yards 171
YPC 42.8
Success 62.5%#22
PPA 2.33#11
Deep Right
13.3%
2 / 15 completions
Yards 70
YPC 35.0
Success 13.3%#118
PPA -0.48#118
Short Left
77.4%
48 / 62 completions
Yards 411
YPC 8.6
Success 46.8%#52
PPA 0.33#37
Short Middle
70.5%
31 / 44 completions
Yards 339
YPC 10.9
Success 52.3%#60
PPA 0.50#71
Short Right
62.0%
62 / 100 completions
Yards 436
YPC 7.0
Success 39.0%#82
PPA 0.06#99
No recorded location 182 / 263 completions
Yards 2,411
YPA 9.2
Comp % 69.2%
Success 54.4%
PPA 0.50

242 of 505 pass attempts have a recorded zone; the rest are in the row above.

What do these stats mean?
Success rate
Share of plays that gained enough to keep the offense on schedule (roughly half the needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd/4th).
PPA
Predicted points added per play: how much each play changed the offense's expected points.
ADOT
Average depth of target: how far downfield the average throw travels in the air.
YAC
Yards gained after the catch.
Explosiveness
How big the successful plays are, on average.
Stuff rate
Share of carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line rather than the runner.
Second level / open field
Yards gained beyond the line: the second level is roughly 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, open field is farther. The bar under each rushing tile shows each source as a share of the three combined.
#12 (rank)
Season rank among FBS teams with meaningful volume in that spot. #1 is best; on Defense Allowed, #1 allowed the least. Ranks are hidden in single-game views.
Small sample
Fewer than 10 plays in a season (3 in a single game). These tiles are dimmed and not colored.
Defense Allowed
Same stats, but for what opponents did against this team. Lower is better there.

Schedule & Results

Week Opponent Result / Prediction vs Prediction
Wk 1
vs Elon W 45–17
-14.9
Wk 2
vs Illinois L 19–45
-28.2
Wk 3
@ Tulane L 27–34
-5.4
Wk 4
vs NC State W 45–33
+12.3
Wk 5
@ Syracuse W 38–3
+36.2
Wk 6
@ California W 45–21
+21.3
Wk 7
Bye — —
Wk 8
vs Georgia Tech L 18–27
-13.8
Wk 9
Bye — —
Wk 10
@ Clemson W 46–45
+5.6
Wk 11
@ UConn L 34–37
-9.0
Wk 12
vs Virginia L 17–34
-20.9
Wk 13
@ North Carolina W 32–25
+0.5
Wk 14
vs Wake Forest W 49–32
+16.4
Acc Championship
@ Virginia W 27–20
+12.0
Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl
vs Arizona State W 42–39
+6.5