Independent power rankings, predictions, win probabilities, and game results.
| Week | Opponent | Result / Prediction | vs Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs Massachusetts | W 42–10 | |
| Wk 2 | vs Alcorn State | W 52–0 | |
| Wk 3 | @ Kansas State | W 17–10 | |
| Wk 4 | vs Southern Miss | L 24–27 | |
| Wk 5 | @ Houston | W 27–24 | |
| Wk 6 | vs East Carolina | W 24–9 | |
| Wk 7 | @ South Florida | W 45–31 | |
| Wk 8 | vs Memphis | W 38–28 | |
| Wk 9 | Bye | — | — |
| Wk 10 | @ Tulsa | W 27–13 | |
| Wk 11 | vs UCF | L 31–38 | |
| Wk 12 | vs SMU | W 59–24 | |
| Wk 13 | @ Cincinnati | W 27–24 | |
| American Athletic Championship | vs UCF | W 45–28 | |
| Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic | @ USC | W 46–45 |